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    政府工作报告称管住货币供给闸门 政策料更灵活
    2018-03-06 16:31:26    来源:中国证券报

      政府工作报告提出,稳健的货币政策保持中性,要松紧适度。多位专家认为,与2017年相比,今年取消M2和社会融资规模增速目标。这意味着,央行实施货币政策调控加快从数量型工具向价格型工具转变,预计今年货币政策会更灵活。
     

      政策灵活度将提高
     

      在全国政协委员、国务院发展研究中心副主任王一鸣看来,去年以来,去杠杆取得积极进展。2018年货币政策要保持稳健中性,既要管住货币供给总闸门,控制杠杆率增速,又要灵活运用多种工具,保持货币信贷和社会融资规模合理增长,满足流动性需求。
     

      全国政协委员、中央财经领导小组办公室副主任杨伟民认为,要如期实现全面建成小康社会的目标,金融风险这个底线必须要守住。防范金融系统本身的风险,要控制货币总量,还要控制信贷增量等。
     

      中国民生银行首席研究员温彬表示,今年继续保持货币政策稳健中性的基调不变。与去年相比,取消M2和社会融资规模增速目标,可以从两个方面理解:一是当前和今后几年金融工作中心任务之一就是防范金融风险,不再制定上述目标。从逻辑上看,与“防范化解重大风险要使宏观杠杆率得到有效控制”保持一致。二是随着金融创新快速发展,M2作为货币政策中介目标的可测性、可控性、与经济的相关性也在下降。“结合深化利率市场化改革来看,这意味着央行实施货币政策调控加快从数量型工具向价格型工具转变。”
     

      国家金融与发展实验室银行中心特聘研究员、联讯证券董事总经理李奇霖认为,在去杠杆环境下,M2与社会融资规模增速可能会有波动,设立单一增速目标意义不大,放弃目标制反而能给政策以较大灵活性。
     

      疏通货币政策传导渠道
     

      政府工作报告提出,疏通货币政策传导渠道,用好差别化准备金、差异化信贷等政策,引导资金更多投向小微企业、“三农”和贫困地区,更好服务实体经济。
     

      不少专家建议,为避免增长动能转型过程中增速下降带来的风险,应采取逆周期的宏观经济政策工具,货币政策应采取降低存款准备金率的办法。未来可能会有新一轮定向降准。
     

      交通银行首席经济学家连平表示,引导资金更多投向小微“三农”等薄弱环节,一直是政策导向。“需要有针对性的、差异化的政策调整。在政策实施过程中,对于金融机构小微融资的增速要求、比例要求等还需进一步加强监管,避免政策‘打折扣’”。他说,金融体系更多服务中小微企业,还需要更多发展中小微型金融机构为普惠金融提供支持。


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