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    债券收益率下行或再超市场预期
    2018-03-22 10:43:27    来源:

       从春节以来,国债期货显著上扬,不仅收复了2017年四季度大部分时间里的下跌幅度,且大有挑战2017年10月30日跳空缺口的动力,从技术角度分析,国债期货一旦突破并站稳缺口上方,或将打开继续上涨的空间。不仅债券市场做多动能的释放令人意外,股票市场反应也几乎同步:蓝筹股为主的上证50指数只在1月份出现了显著上扬,随后2月份大幅下挫,与此同时,创业板指数则在2月份异军突出,截至目前依然是涨幅领先的板块。债券市场和股票市场板块的表现,几与2017年的全年走势完全相反,除却市场上对“风格切换”股票市场讨论之外,我们认为资本市场之间的相关关系或透露出更多信息。

     

      2016年下半年,货币政策从“稳中偏松”向“稳中趋紧”的转换和市场预期差的修复,终结了债券市场的牛市。从股票市场板块之间的区别看,以“成长性”为主要属性的创业板指数应声下跌,从相关关系来看,创业板指数和10年期国债期货的跌幅和跌势近乎一致,然而债券市场如同股票市场一样并非“铁板一块”:高等级信用债收益率和国债收益率的利差并没有大幅扩张,显示出高票息和高票面利率对信用债投资形成支撑。高分红股票则与高票息债券属性类似,从资产估值角度看,利率上行导致资产估值下修的分母端压力被高票息和高分红等确定性收益导致资产估值上修的分子端推力抵消,因此出现了2017年高分红蓝筹股票和高票息信用债券同涨的格局,并形成了贯穿2017年全年的共同资产交易模式。

     

      2018年1、2月份,这种“重票息、重分红”的共同交易模式几近完结,所谓风格切换极可能形成2018年资产间分化的“拐点”:创业板指数和国债期货同步企稳并稳步上涨、上证50指数则跑输创业板指数、“买入并持有”交易模式逐步被波段操作所取代。

     

      从当前情况分析,市场风险偏好虽有上扬但不至于促使资产表现出现截然相反的变化,2018年一季度无论是从经济增长前景、货币政策基调还是金融监管政策来看,经济和金融环境各方面均延续了2017年以来的惯性,市场风险偏好缺乏显著上行的基础。债券收益率的稳步下行或再超市场预期。


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