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    上周末利好或助燃中小创
    2018-04-02 16:31:59    来源: 扬子晚报

       上周末利好或助燃中小创,谨防日线背离高点随时出现

      上周末消息面偏于利好,主要是国务院同意创新企业境内发行股票(创新IPO和CDR)试点;深交所也发文:全力支持创新企业境内上市;都将会助力创业板再冲高。本周正逢清明小长假,只有三个交易日。最大看点是上证日线形态与创业板正好相反,一个底部钝化,一个顶部钝化,一高一低之间或出现微妙变化,操作上注意踩好大小盘股错位起落节奏。
     

       今天走势:

      上周末利好或将助推中小创,上证随时形成反弹

      上周创业板探低回升连续强反,其实已提前对这一重要利好做出了反应,而利好消息出炉后,短线还有一个助推创业板继续冲高的效果,由于已连续冲高,本周随时有可能冲高回落,但从中线看,符合国家战略、掌握核心技术、市场认可度高,属于互联网、大数据、云计算、人工智能、软件和集成电路、高端装备制造、生物医药等高新技术产业和战略性新兴产业,将成为国家重点支持的对象,这些新兴成长行业主要集中在创业板,所以年后创业板连续走强就是在这个大背景下应运而生的。
     

      年后监管层的“调子”也突然发生了180度的大转变,从价值投资转向了中小创,而在去年还被市场认为是“黑五类”的这些题材股转眼间成了“香饽饽”,风向的变化就是这么快。从周线看,在3月初形成重要周线底部结构之后,理论上创业板的上涨周期为24周,差不多在半年左右,上周周线又拉出一根大阳,吃掉前面两根调整阴线,意味着有继续向2000一线推进的动能,惯性冲高甚至可达2036-2056区域,不过由于目前120分钟以及日线出现背离钝化,再上冲短线压力越来越大,周一压力在1926-1956,上证则处于日线底背离,周初形成底部结构概率较大。
     

       今天操作:

      周初创业板如继续惯性冲高,应以反向操作为主

      本周只有三个交易日,又赶上上证主板和创业板正处于日线相反的技术形态,这一高一底之间,或寓示着在清明前后市场可能出现微妙的变化。也就是说,创业板虽然还有继续冲高的动能,不排除有瞬间上冲1956-2000点的机会,但要小心在日线背离没有消失之前,一旦收出日线中阴,将随时形成顶部结构,并触发一波调整;与之相反的是,上证周初一旦底部结构形成,大盘股则有一波阶段性反弹。
     

      另外投资者也要做好准备,防范创业板出现一波明显的调整, 那么本周的操作关键是要踩好大小盘股错位起落的节奏,择机卖高买低、调仓换股。本周初如果创业板继续惯性冲高,应以反向操作为主,在1916-1936区域建议分批减仓连续拉高的中小创个股,特别是如果上冲1956以上,应越涨越减,滞涨的中小创科技股仍有短线机会,投资者可以更多地关注这类有补涨要求的小盘科技品种。下周大盘蓝筹(金融权重、周期资源、绩优白马等)或有一次反弹机会,大盘蓝筹股即使反弹,仍还是阶段性机会,仓位不宜过重,特别是之前一直重仓大盘蓝筹的投资者,可以趁这次整体反弹机会,逢高择机减仓。


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